Quantum computing enters US strategic agenda

The Trump administration is accelerating the quantum computing agenda in the United States, with mandates to develop the first quantum computer for scientific research and accelerate the government’s move to post-quantum cryptography by 2031.

The machine should be installed in a national laboratory by 2028, a deadline considered ambitious as it anticipates the goals of much of the industry. IBM, for example, is working with the expectation of launching a fault-tolerant quantum supercomputer only in 2029, while other companies aim for 2030 or later.

Fault tolerance is seen as the sector’s greatest technological milestone, as it means building systems capable of operating stably even in the face of failures in their individual components.

The order also determines that the Department of Energy define the project’s technical specifications, including metrics such as quantity and quality of qubits, the basic units of quantum computing.

Additionally, agencies like NASA and the Department of Commerce should develop plans for the deployment of sensors and networks enabled by quantum technology. The movement is supported by a US$2 billion package from Department of Commerceincluding stakes in companies in the sector, and reinforces that quantum computing has now occupied a strategic position alongside artificial intelligence and nuclear technology in the industrial, scientific and security agenda of the United States.

The most important reading is that quantum computing is beginning to stop being just a distant scientific promise and become a strategic priority for the State, as has already happened with artificial intelligence.

There are still relevant risks — ambitious deadlines, technical uncertainties, business models in formation and valuations sensitive to short-term frustrations — but the targeting of public capital, the definition of clear goals and the entry of large companies, national laboratories and governments tend to accelerate the sector’s maturation.

For the investor, this reinforces the vision that the next phase of technology will be marked by critical infrastructure, security, computational capacity and technological sovereignty.

In this sense, quantum computing should be seen as a natural extension of the AI ​​cycle, and not as a competing thesis: while artificial intelligence already drives demand for semiconductors, energy, data centers, networks, memory, software and advanced models, quantum computing can expand this ecosystem by opening new frontiers in scientific simulations, cryptography, drug discovery, advanced materials, defense and industrial optimization.

The path should remain volatile and selective, but the structural direction remains positive.

That’s why, we remain constructive with the theses of artificial intelligence and quantum computingmaintaining a favorable view of exposure to the Defiance Quantum ETF (NASDAQ: QTUM), as a vehicle most directly linked to the advancement of quantum computing, and to the BTG Pactual S&P/B3 Ingenius ETF (B3: GENB11), as a local alternative to capture the broader transformation in technology, innovation and artificial intelligence, always with price discipline, a long-term horizon and a focus on companies capable of converting innovation into revenue, margin and sustainable competitive advantage.