AI already reduces employment and income of young Brazilians, says study

The research was conducted using data from Pnad Contínua (National Household Sample Survey), from IBGE. In summary, the numbers indicate that Brazilians aged 18 to 29 who work in occupations most exposed to AI have around 5% less chance of being employed than they would have in a scenario without this level of exposure to technology.

For those in a hurry:

• A survey by FGV concluded that the adoption of AI in the job market is already impacting the availability of jobs in Brazil;
• The main people affected are young people between 18 and 29 years old.

More information about the study conducted

To arrive at the results, the study compared groups of workers with similar profiles in 2022 — before the launch of ChatGPT — and in 2025.

The difference between them was the level of exposure to artificial intelligence: some worked in professions most impacted by technology, such as information services and the financial sector, while the rest were in less exposed occupations.

The survey indicates that, after the popularization of AI, the most exposed workers began to experience greater job losses compared to other groups.

Furthermore, the income of this most exposed group was around 7% lower. According to the study, this is because artificial intelligence is especially efficient in carrying out entry-level tasks, such as administrative, support and basic services functions — activities that, in general, mark the beginning of the professional trajectory of those entering the job market.

According to Duque, the initial functions for entering the job market tend to be the most vulnerable to replacement by artificial intelligence, since these activities can be performed by technology more efficiently and at a lower cost.

The study indicates that the impact of exposure to artificial intelligence on the employability of other age groups is quite low. “The older worker, in general, is responsible for making decisions, not doing the most basic and bureaucratic work. And making decisions is not something we see in AI yet.“, says the researcher.

In relation to the drop in income, Duque’s assessment is that technology has been reducing the value of the most standardized tasks — precisely those that tend to act as a gateway to many administrative careers.

The researcher highlights that the estimates should be interpreted with caution, as the observation period is still short and the information available on the exposure of professions to artificial intelligence is preliminary.

Still, he points out that it is already possible to see a significant impact of AI on employability, which he considers worrying, and adds that, over time, all types of work will be affected, albeit at different levels.

Duque’s study deepens a survey carried out by researchers Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, Janaína Feijó and Paulo Peruchetti, from FGV IBRE, who, based on an ILO (International Labor Organization) methodology, estimated that around 30 million workers in Brazil were in occupations with some level of exposure to generative artificial intelligence in the third quarter of last year. This number corresponds to approximately 29.6% of the employed population.

Within this group, around 5.2 million were at the highest level of exposure, concentrated mainly among younger, more educated people, residents of the Southeast region and working in the service sector — with emphasis on areas of information and communication and financial services.

According to economist Bruno Imaizumi, from the consultancy 4intelligence, artificial intelligence has mainly automated “more repetitive routines”, typical of “entry-level positions” in the job market.